Sales forecast
A sales forecast is a derivation from pipeline state under a stated method, not a negotiated commitment collected up the management chain.
Three methods commonly coexist and should be reported separately: a weighted-pipeline derivation from stage probabilities, a judgment-based commit rolled up from sellers, and a historical-run-rate model. Their divergence is the signal. Collapsing them into a single number before review destroys the only diagnostic available.
Forecast accuracy is a property of the definitional layer beneath it. If stage probabilities are not recalibrated against realized win rates, and if close dates are permitted to slip without a recorded reason, then no forecasting method can be accurate, the inputs describe intent rather than state.
Where it breaks
Commit is negotiated in the pipeline review, then the weighted number is retrofitted to match it.
Related terms
- Forecast category
- Forecast category is the seller’s judgement of an opportunity’s likelihood, commit, best case, pipeline, omitted, held deliberately separate from pipeline stage.
- Stage integrity
- Stage integrity is the property of a pipeline in which every stage change corresponds to a verifiable change in buyer commitment, evidenced on the record.
- Pipeline coverage
- Pipeline coverage is the ratio of qualified open pipeline to the target it must produce, evaluated for the period the pipeline can actually close in.
- Sales cycle length
- Sales cycle length is the elapsed time from a defined start event to close, measured on won deals, lost deals and stalled deals separately.
Field notes on this
- When pipeline stages describe sellers, not buyers
Seller-activity stages can weaken conversion and forecast analysis. Define buyer evidence, then calibrate it against realized outcomes.